miscellania

January 27, 2010

The iPad: Apple's Diversion Tips Its Hand

Let's all be perfectly honest. Apple's newest creation is underwhelming, more or less what was expected given the constraints of creating a device to bridge the gap between a phone and laptop. It's a large iPod Touch with a data plan and a great battery. Nothing more, nothing less.

However this product launch is extremely significant in another way. It is the latest data point indicating a tectonic shift in Apple's strategic outlook. The shift initiated with the iPod, was parlayed into the iPhone, and is now diversified into the iPad: Apple's long-term focus is no longer on hardware or software, but rather on content delivery.

Slate.com's Farhad Manjoo gets it partially right when he mentions that Apple has taken another step toward making the computer more like an appliance. But in his endearing wide-eyed way, he misses the greater significance of that very point.

Hardware has become a commodity of sorts in the tech world. Amazon, a leader in online retailing, has its own branded e-reader, the Kindle. Google, the leader in search and web advertising recently slapped its name on the Google Nexus One handset. When any heavyweight can jump into your business at will, your business has become commoditized.

No doubt about it, Apple makes money from iPhone sales and it will make money from the iPad, but it realizes that the strategic high ground in the increasingly crowded, incestuous computer/cellphone/netbook/e-reader/iPod industry no longer lies in the device itself, but rather at the choke-point of content distribution. The device is merely the portal to what users really value: music, TV shows, books, etc.

Did you catch that? The device is just a gateway. The device has become commoditized.

With the iPad, Apple has positioned itself once again as the undisputed king of content delivery. The fact that the gateway itself is another stunning example of Apple design aesthetic is merely a sideshow, a selling point.

Prediction: The iPad's success will be a proxy for the odds of Apple's bet on content. Keep an eye on the rumored Apple/NY Times relationship.  If Apple can revolutionize online news delivery the way it did for music delivery, there is good reason to bet on Apple staying on top of the tech heap long after Steve Jobs retires.

Here's why: This news delivery puzzle is one of the last low-hanging fruits in content delivery. As I wrote previously regarding the NY Times, the journalism business is literally dying for an online content delivery model that makes money. If the iPad can provide that gateway, Apple's app store/content delivery-focused strategy will likely prove to be the most significant tech game changer since PageRank kicked off Google's search engine dominance.

The iPad is about as close as we will ever get to a glimpse of Steve Jobs' hand. Once again he appears to be a step ahead, but in reality he's merely building on something already in place. Apple knows that every time it comes out with a new toy, the rest of the industry has to copy it or else seem out of touch. In this case the toy is a diversion from Apple's true strength.

 Well played, sir.

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